Every racehorse has different abilities. Like humans, some are short-distance runners, while others are marathoners. Figuring out which is which and how to pace them can be the difference between failure in the finish and taking the award home. Jockeys(赛马骑师)and trainers have traditionally relied on centuries of experience and data from previous races to plan their races.
Amandine Aftalion, a mathematician in Paris, thought she could add to that. Since 2013, she has been analyzing the performances of world champion runners like Usain Bolt. She has found that short-distance runners tend to win when they start strong and gradually slow down toward the finish line. But in medium-distance races, runners perform better when they start strong, settle down, and finish with a burst of speed.
Her model shows how those winning strategies maximize the energy output of muscles reliant on two different pathways: powerful aerobic(有氧的)ones that require oxygen, which can be in limited supply during a race, and anaerobic ones, which don't need oxygen but buildup waste products that lead to tiredness.
Aftalion wondered which strategy would be best for horses. So she and Quentin Mercier, another mathematician, took advantage of a new GPS tracking tool inserted in French racing saddles (马鞍).
The two studied patterns in many races at the Chantilly racetracks north of Paris and developed a model that accounted for winning strategies for three different races: a short one(1, 300 meters), a medium one (1, 900 meters), and a slightly longer one (2, 100 meters), all with different starting points on the same track. The model takes into account not just different race distances, but also the size or friction from the track surface.
The results might surprise jockeys who hold horses back early for bursts of energy in the last finish Instead, a strong start leads to a better finish, the team found." That doesn't mean those jockeys are wrong, though. If the start is too strong, it can be devastating as well, leaving the horse tired by the end," Aftalion says.
