The Truth About the Environment
For many environmentalists, the world seems to be getting worse. They have developed a hit-list of our main fears: that natural resources are running out, that the population is ever growing, leaving less and less to eat, that species are becoming disappeared in huge numbers, and that the planet's air and water are becoming ever more polluted.
But a quick look at the facts shows a different picture. First, energy and other natural resources have become more abundant, not less so. Second, more food is now produced per head of the world's population than at any time in history. Fewer people are starving. Third, although species are indeed becoming disappeared, only about 0.7% of them are dying out in the next 50 years, not 25-50%, as has so often been predicted. And finally, most forms of environmental pollution either appear to have been best cured not by limiting economic growth, but by accelerating it.
Yet public opinion surveys suggest that many people hold the belief that environmental standards are declining and four factors seem to cause this gap between what they know and what the reality is.
One is the unbalanced budget for scientific research. Scientific funding goes mainly to areas with many problems. That may be wise policy, but it will also create an impression that many more potential problems exist than is the case.
Secondly, environmental groups need to be noticed by the mass media. They also need to keep the money rolling in. Understandably, perhaps, they sometimes overstate their arguments. In 1997, for example, the World Wide Fund for Nature issued a press release entitled: „Two thirds of the world's forests lost forever'. The truth turns out to be nearer 20%.
A third source of confusion is the attitude of the media. People are extremely more curious about bad news than good. Newspapers and broadcasters are there to provide what the public wants: That, however, can lead to significant misunderstanding. An example was that America came across EI Nino(厄尔尼诺) in 1997 and 1998. This climatic phenomenon was accused of breaking tourism, causing allergies, melting the ski-slopes, and causing 22 deaths. However, according to an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the damage was estimated at $4 billion but the benefits amounted to some $19 billion.
The fourth factor is poor individual knowledge. People worry that the endless rise in the amount of things everyone throws away will cause the world to run out of places to dispose of waste. Yet, even if America's trash output continues to rise as it has done in the past, and even if the American population doubles by 2100, all the rubbish America produces through the entire 21st century will still take up only one 12,000th of the area of the entire United States.
It is extremely important that we look at the facts if we want to make the best possible decisions for the future. It may be costly to be overly optimistic, but more costly still to be too pessimistic.
